2012 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS

Sup fellas! College Basketball has finally started, and so has our wagering on it. Going to post my plays, and keep track of them here on the site.  Will try to give some logic behind the plays as well, so hopefully that helps.

Will be doing unit betting on each game.  That will help all of us stay in check and make sure we don't lose all our profits back on just one bet.  Remember, no matter how good bet looks, there is never truly a 100 percent sure thing.  All we can do is analyze and breakdown each game, and go from there.  If you follow unit betting, we will come out on top at the end of the year.  Everyone's unit amount is different, but come up with something you feel comfortable with when looking at your bankroll, and go from there.  I know this is cliche, but remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint.

Have two Dogs I like for tonight. Will be betting 10 units on each bet:

Long Beach State at Lville

Tidbit - LBS was predicted to win their division in the preseason .  It's not a chump division, as UCSB is in it as well, and they are a tournament team.

LBS
Sagarin Rating
ranking 54
rating 82.2
predictor 82.74

Lville
Sagarin Rating
#11
87.85 rating
87.74 predictor

Ken Pom ratings

lbs
#64
49 offense
93 defense

lville
#7
54 offense
2 defense

Overall to me, Lville has played a cupcake schedule. They played Ohio in their last game, where they struggled. The Ville has had a lot of injuries and have had no practice time with the same unit.  That and some other disciplinary issues are causing issues with chemistry and cohesiveness.  Siva is their best player but is coming off an ankle injury, and is still not a 100 percent yet.  They also have a couple of studs that are hurt, and a couple of solid role players.

On the other hand, LBS is a lot like Ohio, but on steroids.  They have four seniors coming back and their main goal is to make the tournament this year.  It's tournament or bust.  They need games like this desperately to boost their resume, whereas the Ville will be fine either way once they get their guys back and go on a roll.  For LBS, Casper Ware is just sick, and can light it up.  He was the mvp in a goodman league game this summer, and is a preseason top 50 candidate for player of the year.  In addition to him, they have a couple other scorers as well.  Yes they lost to SD State, but they are turning out to be better than we thought. And yes they lost to Montana, but Montana is a tough place to play.  Their overall weakness is that they run just 6-7 deep.  I think LBS knows it desperately needs this win and it is actually catching the Ville at a great time right now.  I will happily take the points in this one.

For first half betting purposes:

lbs first half avg:

3 leads - 1 deficit
+4 avg lead at half

lville first half avg
5 leads - 0 deficits
10.6 margin avg lead at half

The spread is 11 depending on books you have.
Give me LBS +11 for 10 units....

Akron at WV

Sagarin ratings
Akron #63
rating 81.38
predictor 81.97

WV #86
rating 79.39
predictor 82.43

ken pom ratings
Akron
#79
108 offense
65 defense

WV
#27
29 offense
42 defense

first half betting purposes:
Akron has won 4 first halves and lost 1 first half
avg lead at the half is 6.8

WV has led at half in every game
avg of 10.5

This is a very, very young WV squad.  So far, all yr long WV has played one good team, which was Kent State.  They lost that game straight up as favorites.  Akron is similar to Kent state in their style of play as well. Overall, Akron's a very good team, a tournament team, and they have two really good players. Zeke will  be down low. Zeke and their other big man are solid on the defensive side of the ball and will definitely affect a lot of shots.  Akron also has this euro shooter outside, Nikola, who is a solid contributor on the offensive side of the ball as well.

The spread is 11 depending on book you have. I will be taking Akron +11 in this one for 10 units as well.

To recap, two plays tonight for 10 units each:

Akron +11
LBS +11


Also there are games that always look too good to be true. Usually I just stay away from those, money saved, is money earned. For tonight, the TENN at Oakland game seems like one of those to me. Tenn at Oakland should be a layup right? Well over 90 percent of bettors are on TENN tonight. On a Monday night, that seems like bad news. I will save that money and wager with it tomorrow instead.

Hope these picks help. Feel free to email me at docksquad33@gmail.com with any questions, or leave comments in the comment section!

Gluck playaz!


*UPDATE
0-2
tough loss with LBS, bounce back tomorrow